Canalys research shows PC shipments (excluding tablets) to the United States grew 7% year-on-year to 17.9 million units in Q3 2024. Notebooks drove this growth, with shipments up 9% annually. Looking ahead, the US PC market recovery is expected to continue, but at a slower rate than previously anticipated, due to weaker momentum in the Windows refresh cycle and headwinds related to macroeconomic policies. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to rise 6% to just under 70 million units in 2024 followed by modest 2% growth in both 2025 and 2026.
Commercial demand remained strong in the second half of 2024 with the segment seeing 12% shipment growth in Q3. The Windows 11 refresh still has a way to go and commercial strength in this market should continue through the end of the year and into early 2025.
“While growth earlier in the year was bolstered by consumer purchases, the commercial market has become the leading segment for PCs in the US,” said Mr. Greg Davis, Analyst, Canalys. “Both large and small businesses have begun exhibiting stronger refreshes of their PC fleets with Windows 11 devices as we entered the second half of the year. In the consumer space, a relatively robust seasonal discounting period around Black Friday and Cyber Monday will help boost shipments in Q4.”
While Microsoft and its partners will work to improve the overall awareness of the Windows 10 end-of-life throughout 2025, we expect a sizable portion of fleet refreshes will happen after the end of service date. This is due to the relatively modest pace of the transition so far, especially given that a large portion of the current installed base remains on Windows 10 just 10 months out from the October 2025 deadline
PC market expectations for 2025 onwards have also been tempered due to anticipated policy changes by the incoming administration.
“With the 2024 US Presidential election coming to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near-term as they have been over the last year or two,” continued Davis. “With reports of import tariffs seemingly on the horizon, the PC market will likely be impacted in a noticeable way.” A study by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) suggests that device prices could rise as much as 46% because of the proposed tariffs, which would add significant downside risk to the forecast. Signals from the supply chain suggest there will be some stockpiling of inventory in early 2025 to get ahead of the anticipated rise in prices, leading to rebalancing of the shipment seasonality next year.
“A longer-term risk factor stems from the proposed public sector budget cuts, both for federal government and education procurement of PCs,” said Davis. “Although 2025 budgets will remain largely intact, we anticipate future spending on technology from these areas could be reduced.”
| US desktop and notebook forecast Canalys PC Forecast: 2024 to 2026 | ||||||
| Segment | 2024 shipments | 2025 shipments | 2026 shipments | 2024 annual growth | 2025 annual growth | 2026 annual growth |
| Consumer | 25,750 | 26,416 | 27,210 | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| Commercial | 29,735 | 31,158 | 32,102 | 9.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Government | 4,062 | 4,355 | 4,319 | 6.4% | 7.2% | -0.8% |
| Education | 10,371 | 9,468 | 9,472 | 10.0% | -8.7% | 0.0% |
| Total | 69,918 | 71,396 | 73,103 | 6.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| Note: Unit shipment in thousands. Totals may not add up due to rounding. Source: Canalys forecast, PC Analysis, November 2024 | ||||||
| US desktop and notebook shipments (market share and annual growth) Canalys PC Market Pulse: Q3 2024 | |||||
| Vendor | Q3 2024 shipments | Q3 2024 market share | Q3 2023 shipments | Q3 2023 market share | Annual growth |
| HP | 4,336 | 24.2% | 4,145 | 24.6% | 4.6% |
| Dell | 3,996 | 22.3% | 4,089 | 24.3% | -2.3% |
| Lenovo | 3,089 | 17.2% | 2,759 | 16.4% | 12.0% |
| Apple | 2,825 | 15.8% | 2,499 | 14.9% | 13.0% |
| Acer | 1,181 | 6.6% | 1,021 | 6.1% | 15.6% |
| Others | 2,486 | 13.9% | 2,306 | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| Total | 17,913 | 100.0% | 16,819 | 100.0% | 6.5% |
| Note: Unit shipment in thousands. Totals may not add up due to rounding. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Source: Canalys PC Analysis (sell-in shipments), November 2024 | |||||
Covered By: NCN MAGAZINE / Canalys
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